San Diego Military Housing Market Update: PCS Season 2026 (BAH, Inventory & VA Assumptions)
Hi friends,
We're in the thick of PCS season, and the San Diego market near the bases deserves an honest read — the headlines never tell the full story for military families.
The big picture: San Diego is tight. County inventory is down about 15% from last year, sitting at just a 3-month supply. The countywide median hit $950,000 in June, up 4.4% year over year. But here's what matters if you're shopping: single-family homes and condos are behaving like two completely different markets. Detached inventory dropped 26% — that's where the bidding wars are. The attached market (condos and townhomes) is at a much more balanced 4 months of supply, taking around 43 days to sell, and closing under asking. Anyone who says "you can't negotiate in San Diego" is only half right.
BAH is doing real work this year. The 2026 rates put an E-5 with dependents at $3,975/month, with mid-career NCOs through junior officers landing between roughly $4,100 and $4,650. That supports buying power in the $650K–$800K range — which, not coincidentally, is exactly where the competition is fiercest. Homes under $850K near the bases are routinely seeing multiple offers the first weekend. It's also why the South Bay — National City, Chula Vista, Otay Ranch — is the fastest-growing part of the county right now. The math works there.
PCSing in? On-base housing waitlists are running 6–12 months (sometimes longer), so most incoming families end up in the private market whether they planned to or not. Getting a VA pre-approval done before arrival makes all the difference. Rates are hovering in the mid-6s, which brings me to my favorite topic in real estate...
Assumable loans are gold. This is the single biggest money-saving opportunity for veterans and service members buying in San Diego right now. If a seller bought in 2021–2022 with a VA loan at 3%, that loan can potentially be assumed by a qualified buyer — and at today's prices, the monthly payment difference is life-changing. Sellers with a low-rate VA loan are holding a marketing asset, not just a mortgage.
Thinking of selling? With detached inventory this thin, well-priced homes near Miramar, 32nd Street, and Coronado are moving fast. Every summer, thousands of pre-approved military buyers arrive with orders in hand and a deadline. There is no more motivated buyer pool than the one here right now through the end of August.
If you or someone you know has orders to (or out of) San Diego — or you're just curious what your home is worth in this market — reach out to me. Happy to help.
Lexie Dindal Compass Military Division | The Pond Team
DRE AB066667; MSLRA021
